Ethiopia: ‘A sliver of hope for peace’

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) said that the pullout of Tigrayan fighters from the Afar and Amhara regions was intended to pave the way for a cessation of hostilities, followed by peace talks.

The government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, however, has downplayed the withdrawal announcement as an attempt by the TPLF to cover up a crushing defeat by the national army.

The Ethiopian government said in a statement released on Twitter that it wouldn’t command its forces to further advance into the Tigray region.

But it warned that the decision could be overturned if “territorial sovereignty” was threatened.

Horn of Africa analyst Murithi Mutiga from the International Crisis Group called the TPLF’s withdrawal “a sliver of hope” for the eventual end of the civil war, which has been raging in Ethiopia for more than 13 months.

A rocky road to peace

But the obstacles to a sustained peace are “formidable,” Mutiga said, because of the deep mistrust between the warring parties.

In addition, both Abiy and the TPLF enjoy “support bases which are very inflamed and extremely nationalistic,” Mutiga told DW in an interview from Nairobi where he is based.

Abiy will also have to tread carefully to avoid upsetting his closest allies, the Amhara, Ethiopia’s second largest ethnic group. 

The Tigray region and the Amhara region, which borders Tigray to the south, have been embroiled for decades in a dispute over land.

During the civil war, Amhara forces took control of several areas of this disputed territory in western Tigray.

Because of this, the Amhara may see any attempt to negotiate a cease-fire as a “betrayal” by Abiy’s government, Mutiga said.

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  Ethiopia’s Amhara region scarred by conflict

  Fighting in the hills

  Tigrayan fighters are believed to have suffered defeat in the hills around Mezezo in the Amhara region in early December. They had been advancing toward the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. The fighting lasted five days, according to local eyewitnesses. People stayed indoors during heavy fighting, terrified by the sound of artillery. In the area, bodies are decaying along the road and in fields.

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  Ethiopia’s Amhara region scarred by conflict

  Destruction in Mezezo

  Ayu Berhan hid in a forest for nine days in late November as Tigrayan fighters occupied her village of Mezezo, some 200 km (125 miles) northeast of Addis Ababa. The 55-year-old found her house destroyed by artillery when she returned. “[In the forest] we were hungry and thirsty. There were also children. We lost everything and when we came back to our home, we lost a place to stay,” she told DW.

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  Ethiopia’s Amhara region scarred by conflict

  Life is slowly resuming

  The TPLF had controlled the strategic towns of Kombolcha and Dessie for several weeks before retreating. Life in those places is slowly resuming, but there are shortages of food items, fuel and other essential items. Electricity and running water have yet to return.

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  Ethiopia’s Amhara region scarred by conflict

  Destroyed hospital

  The hospital is a referral center for about 8 million people. It was used as a military hospital by both the Ethiopian army and Tigrayan fighters at separate times. Locals sad Tigrayan fighters looted it before leaving. “The medicine they didn’t take, they made it unusable,” said Melaku Sete, who runs the now destroyed oxygen center at Dessie hospital. The region faces a shortage of oxygen.

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  Ethiopia’s Amhara region scarred by conflict

  Wollo University badly damaged

  The institution in Dessie was badly damaged by heavy artillery and looted. “It’s really devastating,” said Menagesha Ayele, the campus director. He attributes the damage to Tigrayan forces. “I didn’t expect it. This is the university where their children used to study for their bachelor’s and master’s.” Eyewitnesses said soldiers from both sides of the conflict used the campus at different times.

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  Ethiopia’s Amhara region scarred by conflict

  Aid warehouses looted

  In Kombolcha, dozens of warehouses used for storing international and local humanitarian aid were heavily looted. Local officials have accused Tigrayan fighters, but humanitarian sources said the community played a major part in taking food and other items. Other armed groups are also believed to have later participated in the looting.

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  Ethiopia’s Amhara region scarred by conflict

  Mass grave in Teraf

  In the village of Teraf, 21 unarmed civilians and four fighters were buried in this mass grave. Teraf is located within the Oromo special zone in the Amhara region. Residents said Oromo and Tigrayan rebels targeted Amharic-speaking people, a minority in the area. Children aged 8 and 12 are said to be among the victims.

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  Ethiopia’s Amhara region scarred by conflict

  Shot by soldiers

  Arabie Hassen, 17, said she was home with her mother and siblings when a fighter entered and shot at her. “It is better to die than living with this wound because it makes me suffer me a lot,” Arabie told DW. Her cousin (pictured on the phone) was killed in an adjacent house on that day. Arabie’s mother, Fatima, said her children still have nightmares as a result of the shooting.

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  Ethiopia’s Amhara region scarred by conflict

  Displaced in Debre Berhan

  Schools in Debre Berhan, three hours by road from Addis Ababa, are now shelters for some of the hundreds of thousands of people who fled the fighting. “There’s nothing to eat. There are children here… people have left their homes without anything,” said Mamito Belachew, who came from Ataye. “We are told now it’s peaceful there but if we go, there is nothing. The houses are burned down.”

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  Ethiopia’s Amhara region scarred by conflict

  Militias on patrol

  Local volunteer militias are still on the lookout for Tigrayan fighters. The militias are often farmers or civil servants with little military training. “We use this hill to watch for remaining TPLF militias, and when we find them, we will apprehend them,” said Bahere Kefele, who joined a militia group in Shewa Robit. “We can’t assume they’ve left our area. We must be alert.”

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  Ethiopia’s Amhara region scarred by conflict

  Shewa Robit economy shattered

  Shewa Robit, a town of about 50,000 people on the highway between Dessie to Addis Ababa, was occupied by Tigrayan fighters for several days. They destroyed several banks and hotels, leaving behind a shattered economy. Local officials said it could take years for the town and the region to recover from the damage.

  Author: Maria Gerth-Niculescu

The role of Eritrea

The same applies to Eritrea, which has been a stalwart supporter of Prime Minister Abiy since the start of the conflict in November 2020, even if both sides initially tried to hide the involvement of Eritrean troops in the conflict.

Abiy was awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for making peace with Eritrea, his country’s longtime enemy.

Like Abiy, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki views the TPLF as a threat to his hold on power. He also sees Tigray as a haven for Eritrean refugee dissidents.

Afwerki is likely to prefer continued war against the TPLF rather than peace talks, says Mutiga.

“Addis Ababa will have to be more cautious because they do not want to see a disintegration of the Ethiopian state,” he told DW.

But as the fates of both Abiy and Afwerki are intertwined, “it is true that the Eritrean question will be one of the most difficult,” he added.

Calls for international pressure

A house allegedly looted by Tigray forces in Mehal Meda

Observers are calling for an increase of international pressure on all warring parties to seize the chance of a cease-fire.

This presents challenges of its own: the United Nation’s Security Council has its hands tied because Russia and China, two of the council’s five permanent members, have made it clear they believe the conflict is an internal affair for Ethiopia. 

Ethiopia’s foreign allies, like Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, have furnished drones and other military equipment which have largely contributed to recent defeats of the TPLF.

Stopping the conflict is not among the priorities of these foreign powers, says Horn of Africa analyst Mutiga.

“There just seems to have been little appetite among them for the irregular removal of a leader from power by an insurgency,” Mutiga said.

Instead, they, like China, used the perceived support of the US for the TPLF to strengthen their ties with Abiy’s administration.

“Ethiopia is a highly strategic country. It is involved not only in the Horn of Africa but also in the Red Sea politics, in the politics of the Nile waters. It is the second most populous country on the continent. It is one that has very serious economic potential,” Mutiga said.

Economy in the doldrums

After more than a year of war, Ethiopia’s economy, however, is in dire straits.

Year-on-year inflation stood at 34% in October while food prices peaked at 41% in the same month.

According to a recent United Nations report, an estimated 22 million Ethiopians will require humanitarian assistance in 2022.

Some regions in Ethiopia, like the southeast, have been in the grip of a long-lasting drought

The promise of help in the country’s reconstruction could be used as leverage by the West, which, at this point, holds little sway over Ethiopia.

Last week, the US announced it would expel the nation from its African Growth and Opportunity Act — which exempts some countries from trade taxes — as of January 1.

Ethiopia was swift to ask the administration of President Joe Biden to reconsider, showing that the US had touched upon a sensitive point.

Atrocities committed by both sides

The US had been warning for months that it would implement tougher sanctions on Ethiopia because of the Tigray conflict and the atrocities associated with it.

“This war has been fought at a grave cost. We’ve seen massive atrocities. We’ve seen the use of rape as a weapon of war. We’ve seen forcible displacement and indiscriminate shelling of civilians. The armies have behaved very brutally,” said Mutiga.

Last week, the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva voted to establish an international commission to investigate allegations of violations during the conflict.

Mutiga believes that the atrocities have to investigated in order to foster a sustained peace.

But he has some words of caution: “I think everybody must tread very carefully to make sure that, while it’s absolutely imperative to pursue justice, initially, perhaps, the priority has to be stopping the shooting, stopping the fighting.”

Ethiopia: ‘A sliver of hope for peace’
Source: Pinoy Pop News