Germany’s opposition party, the CDU, takes another beating

As soon as the first election results came in from the small state of Saarland with its two million inhabitants, political analysts were speaking of a slap in the face for the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its new chairman, Friedrich Merz.

The CDU had won 40.7% in the previous election five years ago, but fell to a mere 28.5% on Sunday — the worst result since 1955 for the conservative party.

Saarland, one of Germany’s 16 states, borders France and Luxembourg and has a population of just under one million inhabitants. Its economy is struggling and many fear for their jobs. The center-left Social Democrats’ (SPD) top candidate, Anke Rehlinger — who currently serves as the tiny state’s economy minister — is extremely popular and can now take over the reins of government without a coalition partner.

On Monday, 66-year-old CDU party chair Friedrich Merz told journalists in Berlin that he is disappointed with the result. But on the federal level, he quickly added, his party has seen a marked upswing in support since he took office at the beginning of this year. The latest opinion polls, however, do not seem to confirm this.

CDU after Angela Merkel: Older, male party base

The CDU is still short on young leaders and on women in prominent party posts. And just this weekend Julia Klöckner, who served as agriculture minister in former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government, handed over the party chair role in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate — to a male successor. The CDU now does not have a single woman as a regional party head. That, Merz admits, is “a problem,” and he is determined to “change the party’s image,” he says. But that “can not happen overnight.”

According to the CDU press office, only 27% of its party members are women, and the average age of all members is 61. At the end of 2021, the party had 384,204 members — and there has not been a boost in numbers since Merz took over in January.

Andreas Püttman, a political scientist with the CDU-aligned Konrad Adenauer Foundation, recalls Merz’s promise that he would restore the party to its former glory days, when it comfortably won over 40% in the polls.

Püttmann points to a survey conducted by pollster “infratest dimap” shortly before the Saarland election. 45% of respondents in the region said they were satisfied with Saarland’s CDU State Premier Tobias Hans, who has now been voted out of office. But only 38% said they were happy with Friedrich Merz. “That is because Merz is simply not very likable,” Püttmann says.

Merz, a multimillionaire with a pilot’s license, won the party leadership race on his third attempt early this year. The commercial lawyer and staunch Catholic lost a power struggle with his erstwhile nemesis, Angela Merkel, in 2009, whereupon he left politics to head of the German branch of BlackRock, a major US investment company.

“The CDU is still in a process of readjustment under the new chairman Merz,” political scientist Uwe Jun from Trier University told DW. Naturally, he says, expectations are high for the new party boss. “Therefore, if such bad results are repeated, Merz himself will begin to falter.”

But time is running out for the CDU to win voters’ approval. More state elections are coming up in May. First, in Schleswig-Holstein, then in Merz’ home state of North Rhine-Westphalia. In both states, a CDU premier currently leads the respective state government. And the vote in North Rhine-Westphalia — Germany’s most populous state — takes on special significance and is often seen as a bellwether to gauge national sentiment.

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  Who’s who in the new CDU?

  Silvia Breher (born 1973)

  Silvia Breher gained national attention when chancellor candidate Armin Laschet put her in his “Team of the Future” during his election campaign. Her brief: family policy. Since 2019, she has been the CDU’s vice chairwoman, succeeding Ursula von der Leyen, now president of the European Commission. Breher has been in the Bundestag since 2017, and specializes in agriculture policy.

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  Who’s who in the new CDU?

  Jens Spahn (born 1980)

  The Rhinelander probably thought he’d been shifted to a low-profile post to keep him quiet when he became health minister in 2018. Few could guess that a pandemic would make him one of Germany’s most prominent politicians — which may be a double-edged sword for his career. One way or another, he’s battle-hardened. He has also challenged for the leadership of the Christian Democrats (CDU) before.

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  Who’s who in the new CDU?

  Daniel Günther (born 1973)

  As premier of the state of Schleswig-Holstein, Günther has led a center-right coalition with the Free Democrats and the Greens for five years. His politics largely align with the liberal positions of those parties, at least when it comes to issues such as same-sex marriage. But for now he seems happy in his regional role: He has already ruled out running for the CDU chairmanship this time.

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  Who’s who in the new CDU?

  Paul Ziemiak (born 1985)

  Born in Poland, Ziemiak has become an influential figure in the CDU since he rose to the post of general secretary in 2018, having previously led the party’s youth organization, the Junge Union (JU), for six years. He is now a force in the party, with a stance that chimes well with the modern profile it is aiming at: liberal socially, conservative economically, and not averse to populist rhetoric.

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  Who’s who in the new CDU?

  Tobias Hans (born 1978)

  At 43, Hans is the youngest serving head of a German state government, leading a grand coalition with the Social Democrats in the small western state of Saarland since 2018. But he is soon to be replaced, as his party was voted out in March 2022. He is also a member of the German-French Friendship Group set up by the upper house of the German parliament, the Bundesrat.

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  Who’s who in the new CDU?

  Tilman Kuban (born 1987)

  The successor to Ziemiak as head of the JU since 2019, Kuban studied law and worked as a talent scout for the football club Hannover 96 before entering politics. He represents the CDU in the Bundestag, having won a place via the party’s Lower Saxony list. Kuban is considered one of the hard-line conservatives in the CDU, having called for a tougher asylum policy in 2015.

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  Who’s who in the new CDU?

  Sepp Müller (born 1989)

  Müller became a CDU Bundestag member in 2017, at the age of just 28, and appears to be a popular candidate in his hometown of Wittenberg, eastern Germany, where he has now twice won his seat directly. In fact, he got the best result of any CDU MP in the east. That might be thanks to the fact that he has been a vocal defender of his region’s industries.

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  Who’s who in the new CDU?

  Diana Kinnert (born 1991)

  The political consultant and writer became the Bundestag’s youngest-ever chief of staff when she ran the parliamentary vice president’s office at the age of 24. A lesbian, the daughter of a Filipino immigrant and formerly active in Greenpeace and Amnesty International, Kinnert does not fit the profile of a CDU politician, which is perhaps why senior party figures have engaged her as an adviser.

  Author: Ben Knight

CDU’s strategy: ‘A long-distance run’

Merz has repeatedly stressed that the CDU plans to hold on to power in both states, even though this would be hard work.

“We’re not on a short-distance run here, we’re on a long-distance run,” he said and swiftly declared the election to the European parliament in the summer of 2024 as the big touchstone. That would be the time for the CDU to defend its role as Germany’s truly “European Party.”

Political scientist Uwe Jun does not expect a repeat of last Sunday’s poor result for the conservatives And Andreas Püttmann agrees: he also believes that cracks might appear in the federal coalition government in Berlin, which could benefit the largest opposition party, the CDU.

This article was originally written in German.

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Germany’s opposition party, the CDU, takes another beating
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